The first leg of the 2024/25 Europa League semi-final between Athletic (Spain) and Manchester United (England) will take place on May 1 at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Manchester United: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basque side has been absent from European competitions since 2018. Their return to continental tournaments has been impressive, reaching the Europa League semi-finals (a stage they last reached in the 2011/12 season). In the playoffs, the Spanish team advanced through two rounds, defeating Roma and Rangers. They overcame the Italian club thanks to a better home result (1-2 and 3-1), while against the Scottish side, Ernesto Valverde's men excelled with their strong defense – 0-0 and 2-0.
- The club has not lost in 10 of their last 12 Europa League matches (8 wins and 2 draws).
- At least two goals have been scored in 8 of Athletic's last 9 matches in this European competition.
- The Basque side has conceded just one goal in the first half of their last eight matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Julen Agirrezabala – Oscar De Marcos, Lekue, Yeray Alvarez, Daniel Vivian – Mikel Haurregui, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Oihan Sancet – Alex Berenguer, Nico Williams, Maroan Sannadi.
Only midfielder Oihan Sancet is in the team's infirmary.
Manchester United
In the past eight years, Manchester United has reached the Europa League semi-finals for the fourth time. Like the Basque team, the English side advanced directly to the tournament's round of 16, where they comfortably dealt with another La Liga representative – Real Sociedad (1-1 and 4-1). However, they faced difficulties in the previous round: both matches against Lyon ended with identical 2-2 scores, and the English team overcame the French side with a victory in extra time (3-2). Notably, this was the first time in European competition history that five goals were scored in extra time. Also, no team had previously scored two goals after the 120th minute (Manchester United achieved this).
- Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester United's last 8 Europa League matches after 90 minutes.
- In nine of the English side's last matches in this tournament, there was a draw in the first half eight times.
Predicted lineup for Manchester United (3-4-3)
Andre Onana – Harry Maguire, Leny Yoro, Noussair Mazraoui – Diogo Dalot, Patrick Dorgu, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes – Manuel Ugarte, Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Højlund.
Due to injuries, defenders Diogo Dalot, Aiden Heaven, and Lisandro Martinez, as well as forward Joshua Zirkzee, are out of the game. The participation of forward Amad Diallo and defender Matthijs de Ligt is in question.
Referee
Espen Eskås (Norway)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 23%.
Athletic vs. Manchester United: Match Prediction
In a clash between opponents of this caliber, the home field will be a key factor, in my opinion. I predict that the Basque side will win the first leg, and in the return match, they will rely on their excellent defense, which is the best in La Liga. Beating the club from Bilbao is incredibly difficult: this season, the Spanish team has won all six home matches in the Europa League, conceding only two goals.
It's worth noting that Athletic also shows excellent results in the league at San Mamés, where they have suffered only one defeat in 17 matches of the current La Liga season (10 wins and 6 draws). Yes, Manchester United has not lost in this European season, but they have won only two of their six away matches, managing to overcome modest opponents – Viktoria Plzen and FCSB. It's also worth mentioning that the English team struggles on the road in the Premier League, where they have only won 4 of 16 matches this season (5 draws and 7 losses).
My prediction – Athletic to win
